Housing Market Forecast 2016

HIA say 2016 will be another very healthy year for residential construction. Other key points in their Outlook for 2016 include: 

  • Renovations activity is only managing to grind out a recovery, but there is promise ahead.
  • The rate of growth in residential property prices has peaked in Sydney and Melbourne, while previous few households outside these two markets know what boom conditions are.
  • New home commencements reached a record high of nearly 212 000 in 2014/15 and are forecast to exceed 200 000 in 2015/16. If we can progress right through 2016 with commencements holding up at an annualised level above 180 000 - and we forecast that will happen - that outcome should be regarded as a healthy one.
  • There appears to be little risk of a recession in Australia in the short term. Unless, of course GST is raised to 15% and no account is taken of GST being levied on new housing given that there is no equivalent treatment of existing property. 

Queensland regional building approvals are still operating at two speeds, with South-East Queensland recording positive results and much of the rest of the state experiencing a slow down during November. 

Hot on the back of the Commonwealth Games preparation, the Gold Coast recorded an almost 51% increase for the past 12 months, while Greater Brisbane was up by 33%, and the Sunshine Coast up 32%, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

Resource-based regions Mackay & Whitsunday and Central Queensland are still struggling from the slow down, with -59% and -51% respectively. 

Source: Timber Queensland / HIA